In other words, why should we believe that the place at which we measure our metrics is also the location of the problem?  Perhaps the metric is simply reporting a symptom, but not the malady itself?

Take, for example, a rather common fixation on Exit Pages. These are often bumped up the organizational ladder as “oh, these pages have to be fixed! They have high Exit rates, therefore people are leaving! Let’s re-factor, or AB test, or etc”.

Certainly a high Exit rate indicates something is amiss, and deserves attention. What I’m suggesting, however, is that a high Exit rate page is often not a problem with the Exit page itself at all, but rather a manifestation of a problem which may have occured much earlier in the process.

Do we really want to be treating Symptoms, rather than the Disease? You have Weight Loss? Eat More. You’re Thirsty all the time? Drink more. Feel tired or run-down? Get a full nights sleep.  Yet all three of those symptoms are correlated with Diabetes, for which eat more, drink more, sleep more are hardly the best pieces of advice. You may well cure a symptom (act locally) but have little impact on the disease (globally a problem)

The Exit page can be thought of the place where the visitor “gave up”. Something occurred on previous pages or interaction points, and the reported Exit page is simply the final divorce decree your customer is serving on you. Yes, it is much like a divorce, where the marriage has ended de facto long before it’s ended de jura.

Many analysts get caught up in this conundrum. They are tasked with reporting metrics and (usually) making suggestions for improvement. But unless they are looking at the bigger picture, they have a built-in incentive to treat the symptomatic problem. Don’t you fall into that.

To be sure, there are plenty of cases where the Exit page is the problem. And this is my point; simply being a page with a high Exit rate isn’t sufficient in and of itself to diagnose the problem. So, in line with taking a broader view of continuous optimization at your organization, join me in this thought experiment: what would it mean if the Exit page itself were a problem, versus those instances where the Exit page is simply the place where the problem is measured?  How would we expect the metrics of Exit pages to act in this context?

Here’s one approach:

If we think of Exit page as “end of conversation” or “not interested” etc —  then you might expect that the time spent on this page to be of approximately average or even above average of time spent  compared to all other Exit pages. The visitor has continued down a conversational path with you, and has come to a point where, in some context, you’re no longer relevant to her. If this is that point, then she’ll finish up with this page and look around for more info or move on. Of course, she doesn’t move to another page on your site at this point (since we measured THIS page as the Exit page). Fair enough, we can investigate the various factors on that page that may have gone awry, and fix those we are capable of fixing.

However, what about when the visitor loses her way long before the Exit page? Obviously, she hasn’t exited yet (otherwise one of the earlier pages would have been analytically reported as the Exit page for this visitor). But from the moment of her dis-engagement, what we might expect a human to do is to flitter around a bit in an attempt to get back on track or find what she is looking for. Visitors have goals on your site and they will put in (at least a little) effort in getting to those goals. Maybe hit the Back button. Or go to the home page. She might even start using the Primary navigation (you may be surprised, but Primary Nav is one of the least used parts of a site among visitors who are getting what they want, and one of the most used parts of a site among visitors that are having a “disconnect” from you).

So what might we expect to see in the metrics in this case? We should see such Exit pages to having a lower time spent on this page compared to the average Exit page. And likely the pages just before getting to the Exit page also have lower-than-average Time Spent as she jumps around trying to rediscover the scent of her intended trail.

What else might we expect? Well, in those cases where the problem cases of the Exit pages being of only one type of problem or the other (that is, “we have a problem with Exit Pages” versus “we have a problem somewhere earlier in the process”), the spread of the average metrics for this page such as Time Spent, etc should be fairly narrow and static over time. The std deviation of the metric will be fairly tight compared to its average.

In contrast, if you have both types of Exit page problems on your site, then you’d expect the standard deviation of Exit page metrics to be much wider, because really you’re measuring two diff’t populations of problems. This in itself suggests an occasional “binning” of the Exit pages in some visual way so you can diagnose if you have anything other than a bell curve distribution of Exit page problems.

Once you start thinking about your problem with Exit pages this way, you can come up with better ways to isolate Symptoms from Disease, and you’re that further along in treating both effectively. Your Patient-Visitor will thank you because she’ll get more done at your site.

By the way, this sort of shift in your thinking will point you towards a similar approach to other problems on your site. For example, Bounce Rate.

[As an aside, I'll make the distinction here that Exit Page is the last page the visitor was on in a session, and Bounce page is a special kind of Exit page where the visitor was only ever on that one page before leaving]

For years, people have made a lot out of Bounce Rate — as they should — but without considering that the Bounce page, typically a landing page or home page, may not really have any problem with it all.

Again, this doesn’t mean that all Bounce Rates are ignorable. Just the opposite, because what I’m asserting is that there is as strong a possibility that the Bounce Page is being bounced off of because of something wrong with the Ad or the referring Search Engine result, or etc which had set up an expectation of relevancy — a contract with the visitor if you will — that the Bounce page isn’t prepared to handle. Perhaps someone in charge of PPC efforts has changed something in the Ad — all with good intent — but if this scent isn’t followed through from the Ad onto the ensuing pages it manifests as an increase to the Bounce rate when visitors get to the site.

This comes about far more often than you would think because so many organizations are set up as silos. You’ve got the analysts on one side trying to measure as much of it as they can get done, people responsible for the website tweaking and optimizing away, and PPC folks add driving click-thrus but possibly without interacting with the team managing the site. All of which create symptoms that there’s something wrong with the site when the disease may well be the lack of co-ordinated effort cross-company.

That should give us all something to think about, right? I’m curious, what percentage (rough estimate) would you put on the ratio of Exit Pages that have problems with the page itself versus problems that occured much earlier in the process? My experience is that it’s far closer to 50:50 (meaning: “it’s a coin flip!And I can’t treat this problem until I know more!”) than any organization would like to admit.

[This article is Cross-posted to my monthly column at MarketingLand, which is a great place to read all sorts of interesting content.]

Waitresses are great at this. And as far as I can tell, the over-worked ones at diners and dives often have the best 6th-sense for how to handle a customer. When it comes to your restaurant (your website) and your hungry patrons (your customers), and your waitress (uh, YOU!), answer me this: “Would you tip you?”

Bryan Eisenberg often writes about the “Conversion Trinity” as the effective formula for improving conversion from when we were at our consulting agency (back in the day). I’ve always shied away from that nomenclature since I feel it has too much religious overtones to it (IMHO).  I prefer instead to think of the three core concepts as the very same ones that you’d expect from a great service experience at a restaurant: Relevance, Value, and Call To Action.

Of course, that’s not the parlance used at a great eating establishment. (“86 Those  Words, Chef!”). But the principles are the same:

• Relevance: From a Conversion standpoint, we talk about about being relevant to the customer’s wants, desires, search (explicit or implicit), and the concept of maintaining the scent trail for the customer.

From a waitress’ perspective, if I walk in and ask “what’s good?” a great waitress immediately has something to recommend. And she’s familiar enough with the menu, that if I get a no-no-on-carbs look in my eye when she says “pasta” , she immediately  pivots to a steak or salad. If I walk in and say “I’d like a steak”, then a great waitress doesn’t spend anytime singing the praises of the risotto, fine as it may be.

• Value: From a Conversion standpoint, we talk about if the customer knows why this is exactly the right restaurant to be getting what I wanted from my Relevance query. Has the value prop been explained well?

From a waitress’ perspective, why is “what’s good”, well, good? Maybe it’s “we’re known for this throughout the South”, or “we’ve been making it the same way since 1912″ or “we use special mushrooms gathered under the light of a full moon”. Or perhaps we’re Value in the literal sense: “we serve Prime cuts you can’t get anywhere else, and we do it for prices that make our owners weep”. However the waitress sells it, a great waitress implicitly knows the Value has to match the Relevance.

[Personally, this is why I immediately tune out a waitress who tells me she's never had dish X, but "has been told" it's really excellent. This is like the Vegan animal rights activist who wears a leather belt. Just say "I've never had it, but I get the portobello burger all the time  and I love it!"

I don't have to like the same stuff as you but I want authenticity, not a blog aggregator of what others have said. To that end, I want a waitress who likes to eat! Never trust a skinny waitress! Ah, but I digress...]

• Call to Action: From a Conversion standpoint, we talk about whether it’s obvious what to do next, and whether the customer has the confidence to take the next action.

From a waitresses perspective, this means helping me narrow down my choices (“yes, we have half a dozen different kinds of pasta, but the only two to consider are…”), addressing concerns I might have (“this is a great dish except if you’re allergic to peanuts”), and then asking for the sale (“Can I bring you that salad you have your eye on? You can always get something else if you’re still hungry after”). In most cases, she needn’t even ask for the sale at all, since the customer will sell himself (with her help, ‘natch).

If you get Relevance and Value correct, you’ll have to go out of your way to goof up Call to Action — and even if you do, it’s easy to spot and correct later. But goof up the Relevance/Value marriage, and the best Call to Action in the world will sound hollow and forced. The waitress does the same thing by establishing rapport with you a.s.a.p. to help you get to Action.

And don’t ask if I want to see the dessert tray: Just bring the damn thing over, and while we ooh and aah, then ask “may I entice you with a dessert?” That’s a damn fine combination of Call to Action (“Yes”) and up-sell through creation of new Relevance and Scent.

Think about this the next time you’re at a restaurant and you get great (or horrible) service. You’ll soon see the parallels. It’s easy to tip a great waitress, because she is a joy to work with.

Shouldn’t your website be this way? All those metrics and analytics … it’s nothing more than supporting materials  to help you consider what you’re doing online from the customer’s perspective of Relevance, Value, and Call To Action.

Given how you currently handle this on your site, would you tip you?

[This article is Cross-posted to my monthly column at MarketingLand, which is a great place to read all sorts of interesting content.]

Is it Walmart-ish? Is it a Mom’n'Pop? And does it even matter, if they have what I’m looking for? That’s just an outright good point to keep in mind, even when tabs aren’t involved.

Of course, lack of physicality also manifests as the “great leveler” that allowed an Amazon.com to compete with Barnes and Noble and all the other bookstore chains. It’s also the driver as to why a singular fellow like Matt Drudge (from DrudgeReport.com) or Craig Newmark (from CraigsList.com) give the Associated Press and other news orgs at the Newspaper Association of America a hissy fit.

While there’s a few points I think I’d debate with David over a beer or coffee — such as, “Tabs Can Connect With Secondary Navigation”, to which I’d ask, “well, how did the visitor get to the point where they needed the Navigation after they got their bearings anyway? Doesn’t that imply a lack of (or broken) persuasive engagement with the content? And therefore tabs are operating more like a crutch for someone with a busted leg: a way to re-enable mobility when it’s broken, rather than a vehicle to increase velocity” — I think the conversation itself would be a lot of fun.

Check it out! It’s a 5 minute read and well-worth your coffee break time.

Over New Year’s, I went on a dance cruise to Mexico — a group of dancers goes on a regular cruise ship and effectively “takes over” the dancing, especially late night — and everyone (including non-dancers) ends up having a great time. We’d planned this trip back in the summer, with my two wacky cabin-mates absolutely insisting that we upgrade to a Junior Suite something-or-other which had a lot more room and a balcony. This was August, “pre-Recession” for readers with short memories, and so splurging seemed like a good idea.

Despite FutureNow’s having a record quarter ending in September, by early November my more practical side was fretting we should’ve just gotten a regular inside cabin with the fake porthole. Or maybe even save some money by not going at all. I may well have chickened out but The Hummingbird and Dr. Evil (right) reminded me everything was already paid for and non-refundable so there was nothing to do but relax and enjoy it.

You know what? I had a blast. Wouldn’t have traded it for anything.

And not because of the balcony but rather despite the balcony. It was the people I was with that made the experience into a rocking-chair tale fifty years hence; in fact, a fake porthole might even have lent further spice to the story. [Almost at the business part!]

As I’ve thought about the trip the past week, this concept of remembering to live in the present came back to me again and again. How many of the hundreds of people who just stood and watched for hours from the railing wished they’d learned more from their Aunt Ethel’s b-day gift of 6 lessons at Arthur Murray’s so they might’ve joined in? What about the singular, nutty fellow who despite his lack of dance lessons joined in anyway and ended up trading an appetizer of “looking foolish” for a main entree portion of “priceless”?

Are you too busy to take a dance lesson? Or walk your dog? Or take your Mom out for ice-cream? Or – let me segue this to my business theme — work on some project you’ve been putting off, say, increasing your conversion rate? or getting started in testing? or revamping your website?

Recently, I’ve been listening to some Alan Watt’s Zen-ish podcasts and he talks about one translation of the concept of nirvana being “to exhale”. Which is to say, literally and figuratively, action comes when we “breathe out”.

Are you holding your breath waiting for the Recession to end before you try something new? You’ll have suffocated long before then. Exhale, and start acting now to change your company’s situation.

Are you just waiting for your Dev Team to have enough free time before they get around to improving that shopping cart? They’ll never get to it, unless you stop thinking about it and start doing something about it.  Exhale, and start.

Not enough budget to start testing and optimizing? When have you ever had enough budget for everything? Stop worrying about it and exhale. Right Now is always the Right Time.